GE2017 Final Predictions

Vote Share

All are +/- 10% of the predicted vote and I’m 95% confident it will fall within those margins.

Tory – 46%

Labour – 37%

Lib Dem – 7%

UKIP – 3%

SNP – 4%

Others – 3%

Seat Count

Tory/Lab are +/- ten seats, others are +/- 10% at 95% confidence.

Tory – 374

Labour – 199

Lib Dem – 7

UKIP – 0 – :).

SNP – 47

PC – 4

Green – 1

Tory Majority of 98 (with all 650 MPs included)

My Bets

These are things I’ve got money on. Of the 34 bets, I now have zero confidence in 17 of them. So… Cash out?

Market Selection Type Odds
England Constituencies E – K / Hendon Labour Back 7.8
Wales Constituencies / Blaenau Gwent Plaid Cymru Back 5.5
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems Vote Percentage 10.01 – 15.0 Percent Back 2.38
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage 25.01 – 30.0 Percent Back 2.66
Scotland Constituencies / Edinburgh South Labour Back 2.06
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 2.5 Scottish Seats Over 2.5 Seats Back 2.1
2017 – UK General Election / Labour To Win A Seat in Scotland? No Back 2.26
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 385.5 Seats Over 385.5 Seats Back 1.4
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 14.5 Seats Under 14.5 Seats Back 1.5
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 399.5 Seats Over 399.5 Seats Back 2.02
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 7.5 Scottish Seats Over 7.5 Seats Back 1.7
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP Vote Percentage 5.0 Percent or Lower Back 1.53
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP To Win A Seat? No Back 1.13
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 200 – 224 Seats Back 14.5
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 175 – 199 Seats Back 9.8
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Labour 100-149 Seats Back 2.84
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Lib Dems 10-19 Seats Back 3.2
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Conservative 400-449 Seats Back 2.92
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 28.5 Seats Under 28.5 Seats Back 1.81
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 125 – 149 Seats Back 5.4
2017 – UK General Election / SNP U/O 49.5 Seats Under 49.5 Seats Back 1.64
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat Ed Balls Back 2
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat Vince Cable Back 1.2
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 370.5 Seats Over 370.5 Seats Back 1.83
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 18.5 Seats Over 18.5 Seats Back 1.26
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 37.5 Seats Under 37.5 Seats Back 1.7
2017 – UK General Election / Labour U/O 218.5 Seats Under 218.5 Seats Back 1.2
2017 – UK General Election / Most Seats Conservative Back 1.07
2017 – UK General Election / Prime Minister After Election Theresa May Back 1.12
2017 – UK General Election / Overall Majority Conservative Majority Back 1.18
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage 20.01 – 25.0 Percent Back 2.56
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 337.5 Seats Over 337.5 Seats Back 1.18
UK – Party Leaders / Next Labour Leader Yvette Cooper Back 16

Interesting Seat Changes

Not so much predictions as me spouting.

Bolsover – Please, please, please let Dennis Skinner lose. His vicious bile against anything that smells like a Tory is tiresome and comes from the worst parts of our politics.

Farron – Believe name recognition (ha, a Lib Dem) may save him but interesting to see people so interested. Likely ends up like Nick Clegg last time with people wondering why they targetted him so heavily. (If he was targetted particularly heavily, him being a Lib Dem means I’ve paid as much attention as he deserves)

Lewis – Clive Lewis losing his seat would be spectacular. Not a Balls/Portillo moment – but for the future of the Labour party it’s better for this empty suit of a semi-Corbynista to lose. I reckon he will.

Gordon – Salmond to hold. Sadface.

Moray – Robertson to hold. Sadface.

Updated Modelled Figures

NB – I haven’t updated the model behind this at all since Comrade May’s awful manifesto. So some of the assumptions have had events overtake them. Hey ho.

Believe it sells SNP too much and buys Tory too little. Hence predictions above.

Con 342
Lab 234
SNP 44
Others 19
LD 6
PC 4
Green 1


The Homeless Liberals

I’m a liberal – free markets make for free people, the cycle reinforces itself with free people demanding further freedoms.

There is no political home for me in the UK – the Liberal Democrats are liberal in the loosest possible sense, but are not democratic and cannot hope to represent me. Labour are led by a man who wanted the IRA to win, who glorifies terrorism, and who takes money from Iran. UKIP are dead and have in the last five years gone from a party of fun if occasionally embarrassing semi-libertarians to the racist demagogues they became in order to win a few extra votes.

The Tories – ah the Tories – I’m a member of the Tory party. I will vote Tory in the coming election. But I am not a fan of Theresa May – her authoritarian instincts, her anti-market manifesto, and the continued ignoring of the importance of the deficit makes a mockery of the history of the party pro-market and pro-freedom.

It is not the place of government to inspire the country, to have a mission for the country. But a party should have an inspiring vision that drives it’s plan in government. There’s nothing wrong with having an ideology. With knowing where you want the government to go. With knowing that your plans are right and deserve to be implemented.

Under the strong and stable leadership of Theresa May, there will be no ideological crusades.

Be still my beating heart.

Because Conservatism is not and never has been the philosophy described by caricaturists. We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.

Speak for yourself – free markets are conservative. Because they allow everything else to be paid for. Selfish individualism is the only thing that keeps the world pushing forward to the brighter future that generations of visionary capitalists have given us. Inequality isn’t an evil in itself – only if intergenerational inequality has become engrained to the point an oligarchy stifles growth and creative destruction. So long as there is equality of opportunity, inequality is not an issue. And dogma and ideology are not dangerous – but the way change can be forced through against inertia and resistance within the civil service. Michael Gove’s changes to the education system were ideological, dogmatic, and good.

There’s plenty that is fine within the Tory manifesto, scrapping the triple lock and the tax lock are smart. Changes to pensioner benefits are good. The social care policy is complicated but good. Scrapping Leveson 2 is good. These are the few bright spots in an otherwise statist manifesto.

Theresa May is likely to walk away with a triple digit majority – this is a chance to recast the UK, reforge it in the fire of Brexit as fit for the 21st Century. It is disappointing to see our authoritarian PM still insisting the internet needs regulating, not committing to get rid of the deficit as soon as possible, not committing to having tax as a percentage of GDP lower – even if individual taxes rise. There is no vision for the future of the NHS, tinkering around the edges of social care, and nothing new on autonomous cars and the data revolution that is increasingly moulding our world.

I’ll be voting conservative, but with David Cameron I had the idea of an ambitious vision for the UK – even if I disagreed with him over Brexit, I was happy to support him. Theresa May is a tedious authoritarian who will get good support in the shires and in the north of England, but refuses to be honest about the challenges facing the UK and thrust the UK unashamedly forward with the radical changes the country needs.

Go back to your constituencies and prepare for boredom!

GE2017 Predictions

I’ve been working on a pretty rudimentary model for the 2017 election. Broad brush strokes – 75% of UKIP vote goes Tory, the more Leave a seat is, the more the Tories take from Labour (or the SNP), the more remain it is, the more the Lib Dems take from Labour and the Tories. The more the seat voted for Independence, the less likely it is that the vote for leave matters, and the more inertia there is in the SNP vote.

Based on a variation on a uniform national swing and a poll of polls, and taking a point or three from Labour given their incredible weaknesses. Also, gives a point or three to the Lib Dems.

Below are the seats that I predict will change. Some that I don’t think will, like Moray with Angus Robertson are predicted by the model. Others like Bermondsey with Simon Hughes I think are a dead cert despite the weakness of the Lib Dems seen nationally. Given my complete lack of knowledge of Northern Ireland, I didn’t even attempt to predict them, assuming they all remained as in 2015.

It’s interesting to see how few seats the Lib Dems can pick up even under the relatively generous terms I’ve given them, the significant swings against them in 2015 and so many of their seats in the South-West having voted to leave makes it difficult for them to gain much against the Tories.

I think I’m too hard on the SNP, potentially too generous to the Tories (but not by much), and about right on the Lib Dems.

Parties Number of Seats (Change on 2015)
Con 428 (+97)
Lab 143 (-89)
SNP 41 (-15)
Others 19
LD 15 (+7)
PC 3
Green 1
Grand Total 650

ID Constituency Name 2017 Result 2015 Result
S14000002 Aberdeen South Con SNP
S14000058 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Con SNP
W07000043 Alyn & Deeside Con Lab
E14000535 Ashfield Con Lab
E14000543 Barrow & Furness Con Lab
E14000546 Bassetlaw Con Lab
E14000548 Batley & Spen Con Lab
S14000008 Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Con SNP
E14000560 Birmingham Edgbaston Con Lab
E14000561 Birmingham Erdington Con Lab
E14000565 Birmingham Northfield Con Lab
E14000569 Bishop Auckland Con Lab
E14000573 Blackpool South Con Lab
E14000578 Bolton North East Con Lab
E14000588 Bradford South Con Lab
E14000593 Brentford & Isleworth Con Lab
W07000073 Bridgend Con Lab
E14000599 Bristol East Con Lab
E14000601 Bristol South Con Lab
E14000612 Bury South Con Lab
W07000080 Cardiff South & Penarth Con Lab
W07000079 Cardiff West Con Lab
E14000621 Carshalton & Wallington Con LD
E14000640 Chester, City Of Con Lab
E14000637 Chorley Con Lab
E14000642 Clacton Con UKIP
W07000062 Clwyd South Con Lab
E14000647 Copeland Con Lab
E14000650 Coventry North West Con Lab
E14000651 Coventry South Con Lab
E14000657 Dagenham & Rainham Con Lab
E14000658 Darlington Con Lab
W07000042 Delyn Con Lab
E14000843 Derbyshire North East Con Lab
E14000666 Dewsbury Con Lab
E14000667 Don Valley Con Lab
E14000671 Dudley North Con Lab
S14000013 Dumfries & Galloway Con SNP
E14000674 Ealing Central & Acton Con Lab
S14000020 East Lothian Con SNP
S14000024 Edinburgh South Con Lab
S14000025 Edinburgh South West Con SNP
E14000688 Ellesmere Port & Neston Con Lab
E14000690 Eltham Con Lab
E14000691 Enfield North Con Lab
E14000698 Exeter Con Lab
E14000710 Gedling Con Lab
E14000716 Great Grimsby Con Lab
E14000723 Halifax Con Lab
E14000727 Hampstead & Kilburn Con Lab
E14000732 Harrow West Con Lab
E14000733 Hartlepool Con Lab
E14000755 Hove Con Lab
E14000758 Hyndburn Con Lab
E14000759 Ilford North Con Lab
E14001033 Lancashire West Con Lab
E14000776 Lancaster & Fleetwood Con Lab
E14000801 Luton South Con Lab
E14000810 Mansfield Con Lab
E14000820 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East Con Lab
S14000046 Moray Con SNP
E14000834 Newcastle-Under-Lyme Con Lab
W07000055 Newport East Con Lab
W07000056 Newport West Con Lab
E14000848 Norfolk North Con LD
E14000867 Nottingham South Con Lab
E14000870 Oldham East & Saddleworth Con Lab
E14000876 Penistone & Stocksbridge Con Lab
S14000054 Perth & Perthshire North Con SNP
S14000021 Renfrewshire East Con SNP
E14000903 Rother Valley Con Lab
E14000914 Scunthorpe Con Lab
E14000915 Sedgefield Con Lab
E14000930 Slough Con Lab
E14000956 Southampton Test Con Lab
E14000958 Southport Con LD
E14000967 Stalybridge & Hyde Con Lab
S14000057 Stirling Con SNP
E14000970 Stockton North Con Lab
E14000972 Stoke-On-Trent Central Con Lab
E14000973 Stoke-On-Trent North Con Lab
E14000974 Stoke-On-Trent South Con Lab
E14000998 Tooting Con Lab
W07000053 Torfaen Con Lab
E14001006 Tynemouth Con Lab
E14001009 Wakefield Con Lab
E14001011 Walsall North Con Lab
E14001012 Walsall South Con Lab
E14001017 Warrington North Con Lab
E14001036 Westminster North Con Lab
E14001043 Wirral South Con Lab
E14001044 Wirral West Con Lab
E14001049 Wolverhampton North East Con Lab
E14001051 Wolverhampton South West Con Lab
E14001053 Workington Con Lab
E14001054 Worsley & Eccles South Con Lab
W07000044 Wrexham Con Lab
W07000041 Ynys Mon Con Lab
E14000553 Bermondsey & Old Southwark LD Lab
E14000602 Bristol West LD Lab
E14000609 Burnley LD Lab
S14000009 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LD SNP
E14000617 Cambridge LD Lab
W07000050 Cardiff Central LD Lab
S14000018 Dunbartonshire East LD SNP
S14000026 Edinburgh West LD SNP
S14000049 Fife North East LD SNP
S14000055 Ross, Skye & Lochaber LD SNP

Tory Manifesto – A Wishlist

Apparently, the Tories are planning to fight the coming General Election on much the same platform as the last. One imagines the commitment to the single market will be removed and the immigration pledge will be altered.

This is a mistake.

I will be voting Tory, unless it makes sense in my constituency to vote Labour or Lib Dem to prevent an SNP victory. But they get plenty wrong. They should be willing to admit this and change course.

My wishlist for five things to be removed from, and five things to be added to the manifesto.


  1. The Pensions Triple Lock
    1. Possibly the most expensive and ill-thought out commitments a government has made. Committing them to raising pensions at 2.5%, wages, or inflation – whichever is greater. Constantly ratcheting up the cost of pensions at a time when the government should be attempting to wean people off dependence on the state in their dotage. A transfer of wealth from the young to the old. And this is the perfect election to get rid of it, the idea that the over 60s are going to vote for the IRA candidate is for the birds.
  2. Get rid of the no increases in taxes pledge
    1. Pledges like this can only lead to backfires. A chancellor should not have their hands tied to the point that they cannot vary the rates for 75% of government revenue is ridiculous. I’d prefer to see taxes lower, but circumstances can change and the government needs flexibility
  3. HS2
    1. An expensive boondoggle that will be overtaken by the market in autonomous cars. There is no need for it or for any mid-distance point-to-point infrastructure investments. Edinburgh/Glasgow – London/Birmingham, sure. But London-Birmingham? Please. Autonomous cars and new ownership models for cars will mean people can travel quickly, cheaply, and in privacy within our current/slightly expanded road system.
  4. Inheritance Tax Changes
    1. The Tories should be the party of earned, not unearned wealth. Yes – parents should be able to give a certain amount to their children without incurring IHT. That rate should be increased with inflation (as should all tax thresholds). But for the party to truly ‘solve’ intergenerational inequality, they need to increase the churn rate of money between generations. More sales of property from the newly dead would increase the number of homes on the market for the newly wed, decreasing prices and increasing the efficiency of the market.
  5. “make sure no-one is forced to sell their home to pay for care”
    1. This goes against Tory ideals that people should be responsible for themselves. People should be incentivised to save throughout their lives for the end of their lives. The family unit should also be placed at the centre of care for the elderly, with the state only intervening when there are no children to help. Making parents the responsibility of their children as in Singapore would lessen the burden on government and prevent feckless children pawning their parents off onto the state


  1. Tax deductibility of mortgages for people fewer than five years into home ownership
    1. Previously I leaned towards total mortgage tax deductibility. This would lead to an incentive to take out mortgages and an increase in the inefficient allocation of capital by banks (more mortgage lending, as it’s safe and into fixed assets which banks can reclaim, means less lending to riskier enterprises that will have greater payback). But making mortgages tax deductible for anyone who has owned a property for fewer than five years would massively decrease the cost of getting onto the ladder and increase their spending power as they got onto the market. It would be costly and would increase house prices, but combined with a campaign to build millions more houses by reforming the planning system this would dramatically improve the fortunes of the young in this country.
  2. Crossrail 2/Heathrow Expansion/Planning Reform
    1. London risks becoming unattractive in the future as a result of Brexit. It will remain one of the two global cities, but could decline relative to Paris and Tokyo to become closer to them and less like New York. This is unacceptable. London pays for the rest of the union. From Cornwall to Clackmannanshire, London pays for it all. An investment in Crossrail 2, in two new runways at Heathrow, a new runway at Gatwick, and a rapid transport system between the two, and a change in the planning system to favour development unless the area is of special significance would save London from any decline and revitalise it – the young could afford to live there, the 30-50 bracket would no longer abandon it. We could steal aviation market share back from Dubai. London is our national champion, and yes there is too much focus on it and not enough on Glasgow, Manchester, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Newcastle – but we cannot focus on those without London paying for them.
  3. Remove students from any immigration cap/quota
    1. It’s a stupid policy. The one group of immigrants the country is in favour of. And we’re saying to Chinese and Indian students that they’re not welcome here when we need them to pay for our universities. Change it. And in any immigration reform have any student completing a Masters or PhD offered permanent residence.
  4. Merge DfID, FCO, DfIT under the Foreign and Commonwealth Office
    1. DfID needs reform. The DfIT should sit under the Foreign Office anyway. And the FCO needs investment. Bringing the DfID under the FCO should not be seen as a way to scrap the 0.7% target but to make it more effective. With true business cases used for every project and recognition that if the 0.7% target isn’t reached in one year it could be set aside for projects in the future or for acute crisis response.
  5. Diesel scrappage combined with a low cost incentive scheme for PV and EV and a countrywide commitment to autonomous vehicles
    1. Air quality in London and other major cities has become a bigger theme recently. Changes to the Congestion Charge should be combined with a generous scrappage scheme for older diesel and some older petrol cars with an added incentive for anyone turning a diesel over for a new, autonomous ready EV. We should aim to become the global centre for autonomous vehicles, stealing the lead from California with a permissive testing system. As part of our Brexit strategy we should be establishing free ports and should incentivise builders of autonomous vehicles to establish in these zones for export.



Wisconsin & Defending the Enemies of the People

The vote to leave the EU is currently subject to a judicial review. Or so the Mail and others would have you believe. Votes are to be recounted in Wisconsin to deny Trump the presidency. Or so Twitter would have you believe.

No, the method in which the UK triggering Article 50 is currently under review. Is the case being brought by people with a desire to prevent us ever leaving the EU? Yes. Will the case prevent us leaving the EU? No. Will the protest by the SNP prevent the UK leaving the EU? No. Is it right that the case is brought? Probably. Is it right that the case is able to be brought? Absolutely.

The UK is a representative democracy, not a pure democracy. In this case, our MPs delegated the responsibility for the decision to the people. The people instructed the Government to arrange for us to leave the EU. The manner and end arrangements are up for discussion. The Government has to institute the decision to vote to leave the EU in a legal manner. That means allowing the judicial system and legislative system to work. If laws need to be changed to enable us to leave the EU, that’s a minor stepping stone. It won’t make a difference. The government has a mandate from the people to bring the UK out of the EU (whatever that means in practice).

In the same way, the petition to recount votes in Wisconsin is right. Should it have been brought by Jill Stein? Well, I don’t enjoy the idea of denying anyone – no matter how abhorrent or anti-scientific their views are – access to the legal system. But where there are concerns about the votes, it is right that there should be a recount. It is not likely that this will change the outcome, but it doesn’t matter. Faith in the system is paramount. Even if people disagree with the system, it is vital that the legislative, judicial, and executive branches are all able to operate within the law without undue interference from one another.

I voted to leave the EU. But I am happy to see a case brought against the way the government will trigger A50. If the appeal fails, the government should be happy to push a bill through parliament. If the SNP want to frustrate the efforts of Westminster to withdraw the UK from the EU, Westminster can pass a law making explicit that Holyrood has no competency in this area. Powers that Westminster has devolved, Westminster can un-devolve.

This isn’t complicated. It’s how the system works. Governments should be frustrated by their legislative and judicial systems. Anything else is tyranny.