GE2017 Final Predictions

Vote Share

All are +/- 10% of the predicted vote and I’m 95% confident it will fall within those margins.

Tory – 46%

Labour – 37%

Lib Dem – 7%

UKIP – 3%

SNP – 4%

Others – 3%

Seat Count

Tory/Lab are +/- ten seats, others are +/- 10% at 95% confidence.

Tory – 374

Labour – 199

Lib Dem – 7

UKIP – 0 – :).

SNP – 47

PC – 4

Green – 1

Tory Majority of 98 (with all 650 MPs included)

My Bets

These are things I’ve got money on. Of the 34 bets, I now have zero confidence in 17 of them. So… Cash out?

Market Selection Type Odds
England Constituencies E – K / Hendon Labour Back 7.8
Wales Constituencies / Blaenau Gwent Plaid Cymru Back 5.5
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems Vote Percentage 10.01 – 15.0 Percent Back 2.38
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage 25.01 – 30.0 Percent Back 2.66
Scotland Constituencies / Edinburgh South Labour Back 2.06
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 2.5 Scottish Seats Over 2.5 Seats Back 2.1
2017 – UK General Election / Labour To Win A Seat in Scotland? No Back 2.26
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 385.5 Seats Over 385.5 Seats Back 1.4
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 14.5 Seats Under 14.5 Seats Back 1.5
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 399.5 Seats Over 399.5 Seats Back 2.02
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 7.5 Scottish Seats Over 7.5 Seats Back 1.7
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP Vote Percentage 5.0 Percent or Lower Back 1.53
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP To Win A Seat? No Back 1.13
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 200 – 224 Seats Back 14.5
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 175 – 199 Seats Back 9.8
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Labour 100-149 Seats Back 2.84
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Lib Dems 10-19 Seats Back 3.2
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Conservative 400-449 Seats Back 2.92
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 28.5 Seats Under 28.5 Seats Back 1.81
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 125 – 149 Seats Back 5.4
2017 – UK General Election / SNP U/O 49.5 Seats Under 49.5 Seats Back 1.64
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat Ed Balls Back 2
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat Vince Cable Back 1.2
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 370.5 Seats Over 370.5 Seats Back 1.83
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 18.5 Seats Over 18.5 Seats Back 1.26
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 37.5 Seats Under 37.5 Seats Back 1.7
2017 – UK General Election / Labour U/O 218.5 Seats Under 218.5 Seats Back 1.2
2017 – UK General Election / Most Seats Conservative Back 1.07
2017 – UK General Election / Prime Minister After Election Theresa May Back 1.12
2017 – UK General Election / Overall Majority Conservative Majority Back 1.18
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage 20.01 – 25.0 Percent Back 2.56
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 337.5 Seats Over 337.5 Seats Back 1.18
UK – Party Leaders / Next Labour Leader Yvette Cooper Back 16

Interesting Seat Changes

Not so much predictions as me spouting.

Bolsover – Please, please, please let Dennis Skinner lose. His vicious bile against anything that smells like a Tory is tiresome and comes from the worst parts of our politics.

Farron – Believe name recognition (ha, a Lib Dem) may save him but interesting to see people so interested. Likely ends up like Nick Clegg last time with people wondering why they targetted him so heavily. (If he was targetted particularly heavily, him being a Lib Dem means I’ve paid as much attention as he deserves)

Lewis – Clive Lewis losing his seat would be spectacular. Not a Balls/Portillo moment – but for the future of the Labour party it’s better for this empty suit of a semi-Corbynista to lose. I reckon he will.

Gordon – Salmond to hold. Sadface.

Moray – Robertson to hold. Sadface.

Updated Modelled Figures

NB – I haven’t updated the model behind this at all since Comrade May’s awful manifesto. So some of the assumptions have had events overtake them. Hey ho.

Believe it sells SNP too much and buys Tory too little. Hence predictions above.

Con 342
Lab 234
SNP 44
Others 19
LD 6
PC 4
Green 1

 

Tory Manifesto – A Wishlist

Apparently, the Tories are planning to fight the coming General Election on much the same platform as the last. One imagines the commitment to the single market will be removed and the immigration pledge will be altered.

This is a mistake.

I will be voting Tory, unless it makes sense in my constituency to vote Labour or Lib Dem to prevent an SNP victory. But they get plenty wrong. They should be willing to admit this and change course.

My wishlist for five things to be removed from, and five things to be added to the manifesto.

Removed

  1. The Pensions Triple Lock
    1. Possibly the most expensive and ill-thought out commitments a government has made. Committing them to raising pensions at 2.5%, wages, or inflation – whichever is greater. Constantly ratcheting up the cost of pensions at a time when the government should be attempting to wean people off dependence on the state in their dotage. A transfer of wealth from the young to the old. And this is the perfect election to get rid of it, the idea that the over 60s are going to vote for the IRA candidate is for the birds.
  2. Get rid of the no increases in taxes pledge
    1. Pledges like this can only lead to backfires. A chancellor should not have their hands tied to the point that they cannot vary the rates for 75% of government revenue is ridiculous. I’d prefer to see taxes lower, but circumstances can change and the government needs flexibility
  3. HS2
    1. An expensive boondoggle that will be overtaken by the market in autonomous cars. There is no need for it or for any mid-distance point-to-point infrastructure investments. Edinburgh/Glasgow – London/Birmingham, sure. But London-Birmingham? Please. Autonomous cars and new ownership models for cars will mean people can travel quickly, cheaply, and in privacy within our current/slightly expanded road system.
  4. Inheritance Tax Changes
    1. The Tories should be the party of earned, not unearned wealth. Yes – parents should be able to give a certain amount to their children without incurring IHT. That rate should be increased with inflation (as should all tax thresholds). But for the party to truly ‘solve’ intergenerational inequality, they need to increase the churn rate of money between generations. More sales of property from the newly dead would increase the number of homes on the market for the newly wed, decreasing prices and increasing the efficiency of the market.
  5. “make sure no-one is forced to sell their home to pay for care”
    1. This goes against Tory ideals that people should be responsible for themselves. People should be incentivised to save throughout their lives for the end of their lives. The family unit should also be placed at the centre of care for the elderly, with the state only intervening when there are no children to help. Making parents the responsibility of their children as in Singapore would lessen the burden on government and prevent feckless children pawning their parents off onto the state

Added

  1. Tax deductibility of mortgages for people fewer than five years into home ownership
    1. Previously I leaned towards total mortgage tax deductibility. This would lead to an incentive to take out mortgages and an increase in the inefficient allocation of capital by banks (more mortgage lending, as it’s safe and into fixed assets which banks can reclaim, means less lending to riskier enterprises that will have greater payback). But making mortgages tax deductible for anyone who has owned a property for fewer than five years would massively decrease the cost of getting onto the ladder and increase their spending power as they got onto the market. It would be costly and would increase house prices, but combined with a campaign to build millions more houses by reforming the planning system this would dramatically improve the fortunes of the young in this country.
  2. Crossrail 2/Heathrow Expansion/Planning Reform
    1. London risks becoming unattractive in the future as a result of Brexit. It will remain one of the two global cities, but could decline relative to Paris and Tokyo to become closer to them and less like New York. This is unacceptable. London pays for the rest of the union. From Cornwall to Clackmannanshire, London pays for it all. An investment in Crossrail 2, in two new runways at Heathrow, a new runway at Gatwick, and a rapid transport system between the two, and a change in the planning system to favour development unless the area is of special significance would save London from any decline and revitalise it – the young could afford to live there, the 30-50 bracket would no longer abandon it. We could steal aviation market share back from Dubai. London is our national champion, and yes there is too much focus on it and not enough on Glasgow, Manchester, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Newcastle – but we cannot focus on those without London paying for them.
  3. Remove students from any immigration cap/quota
    1. It’s a stupid policy. The one group of immigrants the country is in favour of. And we’re saying to Chinese and Indian students that they’re not welcome here when we need them to pay for our universities. Change it. And in any immigration reform have any student completing a Masters or PhD offered permanent residence.
  4. Merge DfID, FCO, DfIT under the Foreign and Commonwealth Office
    1. DfID needs reform. The DfIT should sit under the Foreign Office anyway. And the FCO needs investment. Bringing the DfID under the FCO should not be seen as a way to scrap the 0.7% target but to make it more effective. With true business cases used for every project and recognition that if the 0.7% target isn’t reached in one year it could be set aside for projects in the future or for acute crisis response.
  5. Diesel scrappage combined with a low cost incentive scheme for PV and EV and a countrywide commitment to autonomous vehicles
    1. Air quality in London and other major cities has become a bigger theme recently. Changes to the Congestion Charge should be combined with a generous scrappage scheme for older diesel and some older petrol cars with an added incentive for anyone turning a diesel over for a new, autonomous ready EV. We should aim to become the global centre for autonomous vehicles, stealing the lead from California with a permissive testing system. As part of our Brexit strategy we should be establishing free ports and should incentivise builders of autonomous vehicles to establish in these zones for export.