Vote Share
All are +/- 10% of the predicted vote and I’m 95% confident it will fall within those margins.
Tory – 46%
Labour – 37%
Lib Dem – 7%
UKIP – 3%
SNP – 4%
Others – 3%
Seat Count
Tory/Lab are +/- ten seats, others are +/- 10% at 95% confidence.
Tory – 374
Labour – 199
Lib Dem – 7
UKIP – 0 – :).
SNP – 47
PC – 4
Green – 1
Tory Majority of 98 (with all 650 MPs included)
My Bets
These are things I’ve got money on. Of the 34 bets, I now have zero confidence in 17 of them. So… Cash out?
Market | Selection | Type | Odds |
England Constituencies E – K / Hendon | Labour | Back | 7.8 |
Wales Constituencies / Blaenau Gwent | Plaid Cymru | Back | 5.5 |
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems Vote Percentage | 10.01 – 15.0 Percent | Back | 2.38 |
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage | 25.01 – 30.0 Percent | Back | 2.66 |
Scotland Constituencies / Edinburgh South | Labour | Back | 2.06 |
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 2.5 Scottish Seats | Over 2.5 Seats | Back | 2.1 |
2017 – UK General Election / Labour To Win A Seat in Scotland? | No | Back | 2.26 |
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 385.5 Seats | Over 385.5 Seats | Back | 1.4 |
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 14.5 Seats | Under 14.5 Seats | Back | 1.5 |
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 399.5 Seats | Over 399.5 Seats | Back | 2.02 |
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 7.5 Scottish Seats | Over 7.5 Seats | Back | 1.7 |
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP Vote Percentage | 5.0 Percent or Lower | Back | 1.53 |
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP To Win A Seat? | No | Back | 1.13 |
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority | 200 – 224 Seats | Back | 14.5 |
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority | 175 – 199 Seats | Back | 9.8 |
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Labour | 100-149 Seats | Back | 2.84 |
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Lib Dems | 10-19 Seats | Back | 3.2 |
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Conservative | 400-449 Seats | Back | 2.92 |
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 28.5 Seats | Under 28.5 Seats | Back | 1.81 |
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority | 125 – 149 Seats | Back | 5.4 |
2017 – UK General Election / SNP U/O 49.5 Seats | Under 49.5 Seats | Back | 1.64 |
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat | Ed Balls | Back | 2 |
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat | Vince Cable | Back | 1.2 |
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 370.5 Seats | Over 370.5 Seats | Back | 1.83 |
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 18.5 Seats | Over 18.5 Seats | Back | 1.26 |
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 37.5 Seats | Under 37.5 Seats | Back | 1.7 |
2017 – UK General Election / Labour U/O 218.5 Seats | Under 218.5 Seats | Back | 1.2 |
2017 – UK General Election / Most Seats | Conservative | Back | 1.07 |
2017 – UK General Election / Prime Minister After Election | Theresa May | Back | 1.12 |
2017 – UK General Election / Overall Majority | Conservative Majority | Back | 1.18 |
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage | 20.01 – 25.0 Percent | Back | 2.56 |
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 337.5 Seats | Over 337.5 Seats | Back | 1.18 |
UK – Party Leaders / Next Labour Leader | Yvette Cooper | Back | 16 |
Interesting Seat Changes
Not so much predictions as me spouting.
Bolsover – Please, please, please let Dennis Skinner lose. His vicious bile against anything that smells like a Tory is tiresome and comes from the worst parts of our politics.
Farron – Believe name recognition (ha, a Lib Dem) may save him but interesting to see people so interested. Likely ends up like Nick Clegg last time with people wondering why they targetted him so heavily. (If he was targetted particularly heavily, him being a Lib Dem means I’ve paid as much attention as he deserves)
Lewis – Clive Lewis losing his seat would be spectacular. Not a Balls/Portillo moment – but for the future of the Labour party it’s better for this empty suit of a semi-Corbynista to lose. I reckon he will.
Gordon – Salmond to hold. Sadface.
Moray – Robertson to hold. Sadface.
Updated Modelled Figures
NB – I haven’t updated the model behind this at all since Comrade May’s awful manifesto. So some of the assumptions have had events overtake them. Hey ho.
Believe it sells SNP too much and buys Tory too little. Hence predictions above.
Con | 342 |
Lab | 234 |
SNP | 44 |
Others | 19 |
LD | 6 |
PC | 4 |
Green | 1 |