IndyRef2 – Does the SNP have a mandate?

Scotland voted to remain in the EU. On a turnout of 67.2%, higher only than the turnout in Northern Ireland, 1.7M voters chose to remain,1M chose to leave.

The SNP claim to have a mandate to hold a second referendum (leaving aside that Holyrood is not empowered to call referenda) – do they?

Leaving the EU was mentioned as a potential trigger in the SNP manifesto. A manifesto that Scotland partially rejected, see SNP minority government, likely because of continuing talk of a second referendum.

In their manifesto they spoke of a ‘significant and material change’ – until the circumstances of the deal between the UK and the EU are known the significance of the changes is unknowable.

The Scottish Greens would likely vote for a second referendum. Yet their manifesto says “a referendum should be the will of the people, and not by calculations of party political advantage” indeed.

Labour ruled out supporting a second referendum for the lifetime of the parliament, despite noises since Friday about supporting one.

So, likely there is a mandate for a second independence referendum – but only after the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU are known.