GE2017 Final Predictions

Vote Share

All are +/- 10% of the predicted vote and I’m 95% confident it will fall within those margins.

Tory – 46%

Labour – 37%

Lib Dem – 7%

UKIP – 3%

SNP – 4%

Others – 3%

Seat Count

Tory/Lab are +/- ten seats, others are +/- 10% at 95% confidence.

Tory – 374

Labour – 199

Lib Dem – 7

UKIP – 0 – :).

SNP – 47

PC – 4

Green – 1

Tory Majority of 98 (with all 650 MPs included)

My Bets

These are things I’ve got money on. Of the 34 bets, I now have zero confidence in 17 of them. So… Cash out?

Market Selection Type Odds
England Constituencies E – K / Hendon Labour Back 7.8
Wales Constituencies / Blaenau Gwent Plaid Cymru Back 5.5
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems Vote Percentage 10.01 – 15.0 Percent Back 2.38
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage 25.01 – 30.0 Percent Back 2.66
Scotland Constituencies / Edinburgh South Labour Back 2.06
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 2.5 Scottish Seats Over 2.5 Seats Back 2.1
2017 – UK General Election / Labour To Win A Seat in Scotland? No Back 2.26
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 385.5 Seats Over 385.5 Seats Back 1.4
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 14.5 Seats Under 14.5 Seats Back 1.5
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 399.5 Seats Over 399.5 Seats Back 2.02
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 7.5 Scottish Seats Over 7.5 Seats Back 1.7
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP Vote Percentage 5.0 Percent or Lower Back 1.53
2017 – UK General Election / UKIP To Win A Seat? No Back 1.13
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 200 – 224 Seats Back 14.5
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 175 – 199 Seats Back 9.8
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Labour 100-149 Seats Back 2.84
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Lib Dems 10-19 Seats Back 3.2
2017 – UK General Election / Total Seats – Conservative 400-449 Seats Back 2.92
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 28.5 Seats Under 28.5 Seats Back 1.81
2017 – UK General Election / Size Of Conservative Majority 125 – 149 Seats Back 5.4
2017 – UK General Election / SNP U/O 49.5 Seats Under 49.5 Seats Back 1.64
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat Ed Balls Back 2
2017 – UK General Election / To Win A Seat Vince Cable Back 1.2
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 370.5 Seats Over 370.5 Seats Back 1.83
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 18.5 Seats Over 18.5 Seats Back 1.26
2017 – UK General Election / Lib Dems U/O 37.5 Seats Under 37.5 Seats Back 1.7
2017 – UK General Election / Labour U/O 218.5 Seats Under 218.5 Seats Back 1.2
2017 – UK General Election / Most Seats Conservative Back 1.07
2017 – UK General Election / Prime Minister After Election Theresa May Back 1.12
2017 – UK General Election / Overall Majority Conservative Majority Back 1.18
2017 – UK General Election / Labour Vote Percentage 20.01 – 25.0 Percent Back 2.56
2017 – UK General Election / Conservative U/O 337.5 Seats Over 337.5 Seats Back 1.18
UK – Party Leaders / Next Labour Leader Yvette Cooper Back 16

Interesting Seat Changes

Not so much predictions as me spouting.

Bolsover – Please, please, please let Dennis Skinner lose. His vicious bile against anything that smells like a Tory is tiresome and comes from the worst parts of our politics.

Farron – Believe name recognition (ha, a Lib Dem) may save him but interesting to see people so interested. Likely ends up like Nick Clegg last time with people wondering why they targetted him so heavily. (If he was targetted particularly heavily, him being a Lib Dem means I’ve paid as much attention as he deserves)

Lewis – Clive Lewis losing his seat would be spectacular. Not a Balls/Portillo moment – but for the future of the Labour party it’s better for this empty suit of a semi-Corbynista to lose. I reckon he will.

Gordon – Salmond to hold. Sadface.

Moray – Robertson to hold. Sadface.

Updated Modelled Figures

NB – I haven’t updated the model behind this at all since Comrade May’s awful manifesto. So some of the assumptions have had events overtake them. Hey ho.

Believe it sells SNP too much and buys Tory too little. Hence predictions above.

Con 342
Lab 234
SNP 44
Others 19
LD 6
PC 4
Green 1

 

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