GE2017 Predictions

I’ve been working on a pretty rudimentary model for the 2017 election. Broad brush strokes – 75% of UKIP vote goes Tory, the more Leave a seat is, the more the Tories take from Labour (or the SNP), the more remain it is, the more the Lib Dems take from Labour and the Tories. The more the seat voted for Independence, the less likely it is that the vote for leave matters, and the more inertia there is in the SNP vote.

Based on a variation on a uniform national swing and a poll of polls, and taking a point or three from Labour given their incredible weaknesses. Also, gives a point or three to the Lib Dems.

Below are the seats that I predict will change. Some that I don’t think will, like Moray with Angus Robertson are predicted by the model. Others like Bermondsey with Simon Hughes I think are a dead cert despite the weakness of the Lib Dems seen nationally. Given my complete lack of knowledge of Northern Ireland, I didn’t even attempt to predict them, assuming they all remained as in 2015.

It’s interesting to see how few seats the Lib Dems can pick up even under the relatively generous terms I’ve given them, the significant swings against them in 2015 and so many of their seats in the South-West having voted to leave makes it difficult for them to gain much against the Tories.

I think I’m too hard on the SNP, potentially too generous to the Tories (but not by much), and about right on the Lib Dems.

Parties Number of Seats (Change on 2015)
Con 428 (+97)
Lab 143 (-89)
SNP 41 (-15)
Others 19
LD 15 (+7)
PC 3
Green 1
Grand Total 650

ID Constituency Name 2017 Result 2015 Result
S14000002 Aberdeen South Con SNP
S14000058 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Con SNP
W07000043 Alyn & Deeside Con Lab
E14000535 Ashfield Con Lab
E14000543 Barrow & Furness Con Lab
E14000546 Bassetlaw Con Lab
E14000548 Batley & Spen Con Lab
S14000008 Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Con SNP
E14000560 Birmingham Edgbaston Con Lab
E14000561 Birmingham Erdington Con Lab
E14000565 Birmingham Northfield Con Lab
E14000569 Bishop Auckland Con Lab
E14000573 Blackpool South Con Lab
E14000578 Bolton North East Con Lab
E14000588 Bradford South Con Lab
E14000593 Brentford & Isleworth Con Lab
W07000073 Bridgend Con Lab
E14000599 Bristol East Con Lab
E14000601 Bristol South Con Lab
E14000612 Bury South Con Lab
W07000080 Cardiff South & Penarth Con Lab
W07000079 Cardiff West Con Lab
E14000621 Carshalton & Wallington Con LD
E14000640 Chester, City Of Con Lab
E14000637 Chorley Con Lab
E14000642 Clacton Con UKIP
W07000062 Clwyd South Con Lab
E14000647 Copeland Con Lab
E14000650 Coventry North West Con Lab
E14000651 Coventry South Con Lab
E14000657 Dagenham & Rainham Con Lab
E14000658 Darlington Con Lab
W07000042 Delyn Con Lab
E14000843 Derbyshire North East Con Lab
E14000666 Dewsbury Con Lab
E14000667 Don Valley Con Lab
E14000671 Dudley North Con Lab
S14000013 Dumfries & Galloway Con SNP
E14000674 Ealing Central & Acton Con Lab
S14000020 East Lothian Con SNP
S14000024 Edinburgh South Con Lab
S14000025 Edinburgh South West Con SNP
E14000688 Ellesmere Port & Neston Con Lab
E14000690 Eltham Con Lab
E14000691 Enfield North Con Lab
E14000698 Exeter Con Lab
E14000710 Gedling Con Lab
E14000716 Great Grimsby Con Lab
E14000723 Halifax Con Lab
E14000727 Hampstead & Kilburn Con Lab
E14000732 Harrow West Con Lab
E14000733 Hartlepool Con Lab
E14000755 Hove Con Lab
E14000758 Hyndburn Con Lab
E14000759 Ilford North Con Lab
E14001033 Lancashire West Con Lab
E14000776 Lancaster & Fleetwood Con Lab
E14000801 Luton South Con Lab
E14000810 Mansfield Con Lab
E14000820 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East Con Lab
S14000046 Moray Con SNP
E14000834 Newcastle-Under-Lyme Con Lab
W07000055 Newport East Con Lab
W07000056 Newport West Con Lab
E14000848 Norfolk North Con LD
E14000867 Nottingham South Con Lab
E14000870 Oldham East & Saddleworth Con Lab
E14000876 Penistone & Stocksbridge Con Lab
S14000054 Perth & Perthshire North Con SNP
S14000021 Renfrewshire East Con SNP
E14000903 Rother Valley Con Lab
E14000914 Scunthorpe Con Lab
E14000915 Sedgefield Con Lab
E14000930 Slough Con Lab
E14000956 Southampton Test Con Lab
E14000958 Southport Con LD
E14000967 Stalybridge & Hyde Con Lab
S14000057 Stirling Con SNP
E14000970 Stockton North Con Lab
E14000972 Stoke-On-Trent Central Con Lab
E14000973 Stoke-On-Trent North Con Lab
E14000974 Stoke-On-Trent South Con Lab
E14000998 Tooting Con Lab
W07000053 Torfaen Con Lab
E14001006 Tynemouth Con Lab
E14001009 Wakefield Con Lab
E14001011 Walsall North Con Lab
E14001012 Walsall South Con Lab
E14001017 Warrington North Con Lab
E14001036 Westminster North Con Lab
E14001043 Wirral South Con Lab
E14001044 Wirral West Con Lab
E14001049 Wolverhampton North East Con Lab
E14001051 Wolverhampton South West Con Lab
E14001053 Workington Con Lab
E14001054 Worsley & Eccles South Con Lab
W07000044 Wrexham Con Lab
W07000041 Ynys Mon Con Lab
E14000553 Bermondsey & Old Southwark LD Lab
E14000602 Bristol West LD Lab
E14000609 Burnley LD Lab
S14000009 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LD SNP
E14000617 Cambridge LD Lab
W07000050 Cardiff Central LD Lab
S14000018 Dunbartonshire East LD SNP
S14000026 Edinburgh West LD SNP
S14000049 Fife North East LD SNP
S14000055 Ross, Skye & Lochaber LD SNP

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